         
Original article by Mahendra Shah, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
Read about expected impacts to food production and supply as a result of a changing climate across the globe, and how the global response must deliver justice to those with least.
Introduction This article looks at how climate change might affect the most basic of all human needs - food. All too often we consider climate change from our own unique perspective. Will my food bill go up if more harvests are ruined by prolonged heavy rainfall? But the impact on the poorest and most hungry people in the world is likely to be far more devastating. How will the actions of the rich now and in the future exacerbate the suffering of those too disempowered to negotiate on carbon dioxide emissions? These are the kinds of question addressed in this the first in a series of articles based on the author's Plenary Presentation at the Open Global Science Conference in Amsterdam on 10th July 2001.
Serving Food in a Gambian village Sections in this article Progress: success or failure? How environmental change is affecting food production Where Next? Progress: success or failure? We are living at a unique and defining moment in history. It is unique with respect to the progress in science and technology that has been achieved in the past half century. Beginning with men on the moon in the 1960s and continuing with the green revolution of the 1970s, the information revolution of the 1980s, and the genetic revolution of the 1990s, the 20th century ended with the mapping of the human genome. Yet some 800 million people go hungry every day, and over one billion live on less than a dollar a day. Without social, economic, and scientific progress, a third of the world's expected population of some 9 billion, in the second half of the 21st century, could be living in poverty. Every minute of every day, 15 children and 15 adults die of hunger in the developing world. This food insecurity affecting over 10% of the world's population is a sad indictment of the world's failure to respond adequately in a time of unprecedented plenty.
Healthy rice grown for a scientific research project Thirty years ago, the world faced a global food shortage that some predicted would lead to catastrophic famines. The danger was averted because an international research effort enabled scientists to develop and farmers to adopt high-yielding varieties of major food crops. The lessons of that green revolution indicate that an integrated biological, environmentally sound, and socially viable strategy has to be at the core of the next green revolution. In the 21st century, we now face another threat - perhaps a more devastating environmental threat of global warming and climate change. There may be uncertainties but we cannot be complacent, not when food - the most fundamental of human survival needs - is at risk. How environmental change is affecting food production Climate change will affect the systems we rely on for food both positively and negatively. It is another factor to take into account on top of the environmental damage already threatening our ability to feed a growing world population. As people strive to get the most out of land already in production or push into virgin territory for agricultural land, the destruction to the environment is increasingly evident: arable lands lost to erosion, salinity, desertification, and urban spread; disappearing forest and threats to biodiversity; and water scarcities.
These African women rely on wells to water their vegetable gardens Let us consider some of what is already happening bearing in mind that a changing climate will have an additional impact on biodiversity and freshwater supplies: The rapid land-cover changes and extinction of living species of the past 50 years are worrisome. The disturbing truth is that we do not even know what biodiversity is being lost around the world-in our forests, in the oceans, and on land. China, which once had 10,000 land-race varieties of wheat, now has less than a thousand. No one knows what genetic traits leading to insect and disease resistance, stronger plants, higher yields, or even better tasting crops may have been irrevocably lost. About 70 percent of the world's fresh water goes to agriculture, a figure that approaches 90 percent in countries such as China and India, which rely on extensive irrigation. Though renewable, fresh water is a finite resource, not evenly distributed across countries, regions or even seasons. Two-thirds of the world's population lives in areas that receive only one-quarter of the world's annual rainfall, while sparsely populated areas as the Amazon Basin receive a disproportionate share. Because of extensive upstream use, some of the world's major rivers - the Nile and the Ganges, for instance- barely run into the sea any more. The growing water scarcity in the future will pose a serious threat to food security, poverty reduction, human health and protection of the environment.
The impact of drought is devastating for farmers. In order adequately to predict the full impact of climate change on food production we need to take these other environmental changes into account. We therefore need an integrated modelling approach that can assess the impact of climate change together with all the other land productivity problems a particular part of the world may be facing. Where Next? On ClimateX.org Read another article in this series by Mahendra Shah. ‘Food in a Climate of Disparity 3' identifies "winners" and "losers" in terms of cereal production and global warming. ‘Climate change and global food supply' by Alison Colls is also good introduction to this subject. External links The International Development Committee carried out an enquiry into climate change and development in 2001, including a published report and government response. The Climate Institute, a non-profit US Washington-based network and alliance of climate change experts, whose board of directors includes Sir Crispin Tickell, has some links to further studies on food security and climate change. See http://www.climate.org/topics/agricul/index.shtml Article by
Mahendra Shah, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
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