Original article by Mahendra Shah of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. Areas which already struggle to produce enough food for inhabitants are being put under increasing pressure due to climatic changes. This article outlines how vulnerable regions are being identified and prepared for climate change.

Introduction

Global warming will affect where we can grow different food crops as well as the amount of water they need. It may also lead to an increase in the pests which attack them. These changes will reduce food supplies in some countries where hunger is already a daily experience for millions. In this the third of a series of three articles, the author looks at what is being done to identify regions most vulnerable to climate change and protect them from this life threatening impact.

These Nicaraguan girls survived Hurricane Mitch but what else does the future hold?

Sections in this article

Climate change and development efforts

The choice for those with power

The AEZ Climate Impact Assessment

Winners and Losers

The existing food gap

Cause for concern

Fairness and equity?

Concluding remark

Where Next?

Climate change and development efforts

This African family survives on a diet of millet.

It is only in poor countries that drought turns to famine and often that results in substantial economic losses, population displacement, suffering and loss of life. The social and economic costs of such occurrences may undo, just in a day or a month, the achievements of years of development efforts. The challenge of integrated mitigation and adaptation to climate change, variability and extreme events will entail incorporating these issues in long-term strategies for development that are equitable and sustainable.

Responses to climate change can be of two broad types. The first type is adaptive measures to reduce the impacts and risks, and maximize the benefits and opportunities, of climate change, whatever its cause. The other type of response involves mitigation measures to reduce human contributions to climate change. Both adaptive measures and mitigation measures are necessary elements of a coherent and integrated response to climate change. If future emissions are higher, the impact will be stronger, and vice versa. At the same time, no matter how aggressively emissions are reduced, climate change is a reality for the 21^st century, since existing emissions in the atmosphere will remain for decades to come. Thus adaptation to climate change is inevitable. 

The choice for those with power

Life choices in industrialized countries threaten the survival of poor countries.  

If we are to stem global warming, we have no choice but to reduce the rapidly increasing emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide. But in doing so, the contribution to and consequences of such emissions, as well as the different national development needs and priorities, have to be central in reaching economically efficient and environmentally effective agreements.

Here, the good news is that the scientific understanding of global warming is growing by the day, and we are already at the point where uncertainty is no longer an acceptable excuse for inaction. These are the challenges that politicians, policy makers, and scientists must meet, in the interest of everyone everywhere. 

The AEZ Climate Impact Assessment

To help policy makers target their efforts to protect vulnerable countries we need to be able to predict the impact of climate change in different parts of the world as accurately as possible. The AEZ climate impact assessment we are using at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis is based on a range of projections of the ECHAM4 model of the Max Planck Institute of Meteorology, the HadCM2 model of the Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research, and the CGCM1 model of the Canadian Center for Climate Modeling.

All three-climate models predict that global warming will occur and that the heat index will rise. Precipitation, (rain) is more likely to come in heavy and extreme events. In some cases, the Canadian model predicts drier conditions than do the Max Planck and the Hadley models. There is uncertainty in future climate prediction. Our aim has been to analyze the robust conclusion of various climate model predictions and in this context, an analysis of the AEZ results are also relevant to further improvements and refinements of the various climate models.

The AEZ approach fully accounts for optimal adaptations of crop calendars as well as switching of crop types. Yield increases resulting from higher carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere are also incorporated.

Winners and Losers

The results of changes in cereal production in the 2080s based on the three climate models highlight that climate change will benefit the developed countries in terms of net gain in cereal production due to climate change substantially more than the developing countries.

Among the developed countries the winners for all three climate models include: Canada, The United States, Spain, France and Italy. Losers include: The United Kingdom, Germany, Poland and Australia. In the developing regions: India, Thailand, Colombia and many sub-Saharan African countries lose production, while countries such as China, Mexico, Chile and Kenya gain production.

At the global level, the gain in cereal production due to climate change amounts to some 230 million tons for the Max Planck and the Hadley models and only about 20 million tons for the Canadian model. However, in spite of this positive global outcome, there is profound concern for many developing countries that lose production due to climate change.

The existing food gap

Of the 117 developing countries in the world, some 94 countries account for the 792 million undernourished people, as estimated by the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations. Sixteen of these countries, each with a relatively high per capita GDP of over US$3,000, are not considered here. 

Of the remaining 78 countries, 28 countries with a population of 2.2 billion account for 223 million undernourished and their average daily per capita calorie deficit is about 220 calories. China is among this group of countries. Another 25 countries including India account for 339 million undernourished out of a total population of some 1.5 billion. The average daily per capita deficit of this group of countries is 285 calories. The remaining 23 counties have a total population of some 460 million, of which 220 million undernourished with a daily per capita deficit of some 360 calories.

At present, the total population of these 78 countries amounts to some 4 billion, and it is projected to increase to over 7 billion by 2050. Currently over half of the populations in most of these countries derive their livelihoods from agriculture. Also, in many of these countries agriculture accounts for 20% to 30% of the total gross domestic product. The current food gap for the undernourished population for these countries is estimated at some 25 million tons.

Cause for concern

Depending on the climate model, some 17 to 37 countries gain cereal production due to climate change. Among these countries, China, with some 140 million undernourished and a corresponding food gap of some 4 million tons, gains about 100 millions in cereal production due to climate change. In contrast, India, accounting for some 200 million undernourished and an equivalent food gap of about 6 millions loses some 30 million tons in cereal production due to climate change.

The impact of climate change on cereal production is a cause for serious concern in some 25 to 45 "losing" developing countries. These countries have a total combined population of about 1.3 billion to 2.1 billion, of which about a fifth of the population is undernourished. Comparing the decrease of over 60 million tons cereal production for the Max Planck model and some 150 million tons for the Hadley and the Canadian models, with the current food gap for undernourished of some 10 to 12 million tons, the substantial loss due to climate change in domestic production in the 2080s, implies that the number of undernourished may drastically increase.

Many of these countries are poor, agricultural based economies. They often lack the foreign exchange to finance food imports. Hence any domestic production losses resulting from climate change will further worsen the prevalence and depth of hunger and this burden will undoubtedly fall disproportionately on the poorest and the most vulnerable.

Fairness and equity?

Global warming raises the issue of fairness. The cumulative emissions over the past 50 years for the developing countries, accounting for more then four fifth's of the world's population, totals less then a quarter of global emissions. Yet, many of these countries will suffer substantially from the impact of climate change on food production.

The world community of nations must fairly and equitably meet the challenge of addressing climate change mitigation policies. This must take into account differences between nations in their past and future emissions, as well as socioeconomic considerations. The timely implementation of economically efficient and environmentally effective international agreements on climate change and national adaptive measures will be criti­cal in the context of achieving world-wide societal goals of equity and sustainable development.

Concluding remark

Diverse and disparate as they are, humans are a single species on Earth. They bear responsibility for most of the global changes currently under way. It seems only right that humanity should give a moment of thought for the many other countless living species that also inhabit the Earth and bear the brunt of the impact of human activities. Threatened with extinction, for example, members of the animal world, have no voice and they are not often seen. Their plight must not be forgotten in human efforts to secure its own future.

Where Next?

On climateX.org

This article is the third and final article in a series of three. You can read the first of these, ‘Food in a Climate of Disparity 1'.

Read also ‘Climate Change and Global Food Supply', by Alison Colls.

External links

The Global Commons Institute has designed a policy for reducing greenhouse gas emissions which addresses the issue of fairness.