This article looks at how one gardener, Martin Stott, is preparing for the impacts of climate change in his garden in Oxford.

Background to climate impacts

FInd out more in the Climate change Impacts in Oxfordshire article.

The current phase of climate change is part of a continuous warming of the climate recorded over the last 150 years, and is being caused primarily by industrial activities that have raised levels of greenhouse gasses which retain heat within the atmosphere.[1]

Impacts  observed across Oxfordshire now:

Birds are breeding up to 3 weeks earlier in Wytham Woods Oxford Mail, 28/07/06

 ‘January King' Cabbage bolting in November, and cabbage white butterflies still thriving well into Winter season. North Aston Organics Newsletter, Dec 2006

‘There is a tendency for earlier Springs, winter-flowering plants coming out earlier, and less prolonged frosts than 20-25 years ago'  Walter Sawyers, Superintendent University Parks

Increasing number of pests can survive winter weather now.

Garden pests, diseases and weeds tend to have short, rapid lifecycles and reproduce in large numbers - ideal credentials for organisms that can benefit from the predicted changes in climate. Increased temperatures shorten pest lifecycles so that populations increase faster, while longer growing seasons allow additional reproductive cycles at a time of year when pest levels are already high.

The cabbage aphid (Brevicoryne brassicae)  already benefits from mild winters, and for every 1 degree temperature rise, aphid attacks begin two weeks earlier.

The outlook

The thermal inertia of the climate system means we'll experience the effects of our emissions to date, over the next 30-40 years.... After that the outlook varies depending on whether we choose a low or high emissions path way. The graph shows increases in the UK of between 1.5 - 6 degrees celcius.

What changes can we expect over the next 30 years?

Further temperature rise of 1-2°C

Which means changes to our weather and greater unpredictability...

What does this mean for Martin's garden in East Oxford?

Hotter drier summers: 15% less summer rainfall  Source:UKCIP02

 Water shortages - we're harvesting our rainwater with water butts.

 Shade will be needed - we have a crab apple tree, and we've planted a vine up our pergola for shade and grapes.

 Towns and cities will experience increased temperatures due to the ‘urban heat island' effect...so ponds such as ours will be important to keep gardens cooler, as well as providing habitats for amphibians.

Drought resistant plants and crops will grow best  - we've planted fig and bamboo - and both are doing well. 

Fig tree	Bamboo

Across Oxfordshire and the South East sunflowers and vineyards will grow much better.. and lawns will be much harder to maintain with water shortages and increased temperatures.

Milder, wetter winters

15% more winter rainfall.

We've put stepping stones across our lawn so that we can walk across it without damage when it's waterlogged.

 Less snowfall, frosts and ice, increases in winter flooding.

More ‘extreme events'- heat waves causing heat stress for plants, flash flooding and torrential rain - leaching nutrients, water logging roots, weakening tree roots.. which when combined with stronger winds could lead to more trees posing a threat to people and properties.

Decreased soil water content will mean that nutrients will be less readily available - so our compost heap will be even more vital to maintain soil fertility - as will the compost from the chicken run.	As the weather gets harder to predict, frosts can cause damage if they come after a precocious growing season - so growing plants undercover in greenhouses or cold frames becomes even more important.

Further information

UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP): www.ukcip.org.uk

‘Gardening in the Global greenhouse Summary report' and more info about current and future impacts of climate change available to download from the UKCIP website.

UK Phenology Network find out about Springwatch and an animated UK gardens and climate change tour...and more. http://www.naturescalendar.org.uk/

See Dr. Polly Ericksen's slides from her talk at the Botanic Gardens. Polly is the science officer for the Global Environmental Change and Food Systems (GECAFS) project.

See also Impacts of Climate change on Allotments with slides and resources to download.

[1] Gardening in the Global Greenhouse: Summary Report. UKCIP, RHS, The National Trust, Nov 2002